I just checked over at Poblano Nate Silver's 538.com and see where the projections have been recently updated to account for a 94.1% chance of victory for Barack Obama, with Obama's predicted 350.5 electoral votes to McCain's 187.5. That, my friends is a landslide. More from Nate after the fold...
As has been true for most of the post-convention period, Barack Obama appears to have a structural edge in the Electoral College. Colorado is a big part of that. Presently, we are showing a lead for Obama of about 6.5 points in the national popular vote (our model assumes the race will tighten a bit, so we're expecting that number to fall to 5.4 points by Election Day). But if you look at our current estimates in the individual states -- this is the 'snapshot' line in the polling table -- you'll see that we have Obama ahead by at least 8 points in all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore add-ons of Iowa and New Mexico, plus Colorado, plus Virginia. Collectively, those states are worth 286 electoral votes -- well more than Obama needs to win. So while McCain has something like a 6-7 point deficit to make up in the popular vote, the gap is more like 8 points in any set of states that would give him a winning electoral combination.
Since I've been on the losing side in the two Presidential elections I've followed closely, its nice to have a big lead going into the final days. Its also nice to know my native North Carolina is in play, and I will play a small role in turning it Carolina Blue.
We're looking good, so naturally I'm in full freak out mode, praying that the ship stays righted for just a few more weeks. Hopefully with a good debate performance this week, we can put this election out of reach. Regardless, I'm going to keep busy doing my part up until election day, because a busy mind isn't a worrying mind.